Track every ingredient to the gram and every sale to the dollar from week one, so pricing decisions rest on your data instead of vibes.
| Ingredient | Package size | Package price | Grams | Cost per gram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bread flour (reference) | 50 lb | $25–$30 at restaurant supply | 22,680 | ~$0.0011–$0.0013 |
| Product | Ingredients (cost) | Packaging (cost) | Total cost per unit |
|---|---|---|---|
Reference: operators who buy conventionally land at about $1.50–$2.00 of ingredients plus packaging per loaf (one course creator's tracker puts it at about $1.28). Your number will differ; the order of magnitude is the point.
| Product | Cost | Candidate price | Ingredient margin | Launched at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worked: plain loaf | $2.00 | $10.00 | 80% | |
Market reference: $8–$14 for a plain loaf direct to consumers, most operators at $10–$12, inclusion loaves higher. The 80% margin on the worked row is an ingredient margin, not an income statement: it excludes labor, oven electricity, fees, insurance, and the loaves that come out wrong. Raise your price before you lower it; operators report demand at $11 vs $10 is barely distinguishable.
| Line | Bake day 1 | Bake day 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Units sold | ||
| Revenue | ||
| Ingredient + packaging cost | ||
| Hours in the day (mixing through cleanup, include the waiting you cannot leave) | ||
| Effective hourly = (revenue − cost) ÷ hours |
The honest starting wage: a cottage-bakery analysis found bakers doing small four-loaf batches earning an effective $3–$7 an hour once time is counted. The number climbs with batch size, and batch size is a function of demand you build over months.
| Month | Units sold | Revenue | Ingredients | Packaging | Fees / insurance / other | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reality bands from the course's sourced rows: side-hustle home bakers $500–$2,000 a month; full-time operations $3,000–$6,000. Legal caps to know before year two: most states have none; Washington $35,000, Michigan $50,000, Florida $250,000. Brushing a cap is a signal to graduate into a licensed kitchen.