Newsletter Money Math Worksheet

Four variables decide the income: free list, conversion, price, churn. It multiplies, so a weakness in any one variable caps the whole thing. The only input you fully control is price, and it is the smallest lever of the four.

1. The four variables

Variable	Honest range (sourced)	Your number
Free list size	grows; tracked from week one
Free-to-paid conversion	plan on 2 to 5%. Platforms suggest ~10% (Substack materials cite a 6% average); field data: Casey Newton ~5%; independent analyses 1 to 3% typical, ~3% common, 5% excellent	%
Price (monthly)	~8 to 15 dollars a month for most B2B niches; start at the lower half for launch; annual at roughly ten months for twelve, pushed as the checkout default; founding tier above annual	$
Monthly churn	3 to 5% good, under 2% exceptional (consumer-subscription benchmark); Recurly overall 3.6% across industries (July 2026 data)	%

Variable

Honest range (sourced)

Your number

Free list size

grows; tracked from week one

Free-to-paid conversion

plan on 2 to 5%. Platforms suggest ~10% (Substack materials cite a 6% average); field data: Casey Newton ~5%; independent analyses 1 to 3% typical, ~3% common, 5% excellent

Price (monthly)

~8 to 15 dollars a month for most B2B niches; start at the lower half for launch; annual at roughly ten months for twelve, pushed as the checkout default; founding tier above annual

Monthly churn

3 to 5% good, under 2% exceptional (consumer-subscription benchmark); Recurly overall 3.6% across industries (July 2026 data)

2. Net-of-fee scenarios (Substack stack)

Assumptions: $9 monthly price charged monthly. Fee stack: platform 10% ($0.90) + Stripe 2.9% ($0.26) + $0.30 per transaction + 0.7% recurring ($0.06) = about $1.52 gone from every $9, roughly 17%; each paying reader is worth about $7.50/month net. On a $90 annual bill the same stack takes about 14%. Model monthly-tier revenue net of ~17%, annual net of ~14%, and be suspicious of any income story that quotes gross.

Free readers	2% convert	3% convert	5% convert	Monthly at 3% (net)
1,000	20 paid	30 paid	50 paid	~$225
5,000	100 paid	150 paid	250 paid	~$1,125
10,000	200 paid	300 paid	500 paid	~$2,250

Free readers

2% convert

3% convert

5% convert

Monthly at 3% (net)

Your list

1,000

20 paid

30 paid

50 paid

~$225

5,000

100 paid

150 paid

250 paid

~$1,125

10,000

200 paid

300 paid

500 paid

~$2,250

Three hundred paying readers at nine dollars is a real business, reachable in most professional niches inside a couple of years of steady work. Not a lottery, a ladder.

3. Churn line (the rookie math, corrected)

Worked implication: at 4% monthly churn, a paid list loses nearly forty percent of itself over a year. Every month's revenue is gross signups minus that leak. Never project today's paid count times twelve months with no leakage.

Row	Your numbers
Paid subscribers at start of month
Gross signups this month
Churned (count x monthly churn)
Paid at end of month
Churn fights: annual plan pushed at checkout; no cancellation passes without asking why	☐

Row

Your numbers

Paid subscribers at start of month

Gross signups this month

Churned (count x monthly churn)

Paid at end of month

Churn fights: annual plan pushed at checkout; no cancellation passes without asking why

☐

4. Platform rent structures

Platform	Fee structure
Substack	10% of paid subscription revenue + Stripe processing (2.9% + $0.30 + 0.7% recurring)
beehiiv	0% of subscription revenue; free plan tops out at 2,500 subscribers, next tier starts around $49/mo
Kit	free plan runs to 10,000 subscribers with monetization included; then starts near $39/mo

Platform

Fee structure

Substack

10% of paid subscription revenue + Stripe processing (2.9% + $0.30 + 0.7% recurring)

beehiiv

0% of subscription revenue; free plan tops out at 2,500 subscribers, next tier starts around $49/mo

Kit

free plan runs to 10,000 subscribers with monetization included; then starts near $39/mo

Month

Free list

Paid count

Conversion to date