Companion to "The Honest Money" and "The Real Losses."
The transition-dip budget. Use real numbers, not hopeful ones. No income promises: every reference figure below is a median or projection, which means half the people behind it earn less.
| Trade | Median annual wage | Growth 2024–2034 | Openings/yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricians | $62,350 | 9%, much faster than average | ~81,000 |
| Plumbers, pipefitters, steamfitters | $62,970 | 4%, about average | ~44,000 |
Demand side: the construction industry must attract an estimated 439,000 net new workers in 2025 and 499,000 in 2026 (Associated Builders and Contractors). Business risk: close to half of new private establishments are gone within five years (BLS survival data, year-5 survival 49.8%–56.3% across the 1994–2011 cohorts). The wage is the floor of the learning years; the business is a separate risk with its own math.
| Line | Now (salary) | Year 1 after crossing |
|---|---|---|
| Gross monthly income | $ | $ |
| Health coverage (monthly cost) | $ | $ |
| Monthly household expenses | $ | $ |
| Monthly gap (ramp income − expenses) | $ | $ |
| Savings / reserves set aside | $ | $ |
| Runway = reserves ÷ monthly gap (months the dip can run) | months |
| Conservative ramp income by checkpoint date | $ / month |
| Checkpoint date: the day you look at the books and decide again | |
| At checkpoint, decide on numbers: continue / adjust / return | ☐ recorded in writing |
Whichever route you take, leap or bridge or weekends, the first year pays less than your salary did. That is the toll, not failure. If your household budget has no tolerance for lumpiness, that is a constraint, and constraints deserve respect.