Will AI Eat This Business?

The AI Exposure Scorecard

Companion to "The five questions" and "Score your own idea."


One idea, one page, one hour. Score the beginner's version of the business, not the master's, with a specific customer in mind.

Idea scored
Date

Ten-task inventory (R = machine could replace, A = machine only accelerates)

Task (the ten you would repeat most in year one)R / AHours share
Deliverable row: the task that produces what the customer pays for (the clean, the article, the edit, the signed loan)%
Second customer-visible task, if there is one (the walkthrough, the revision, the report)%
Finding customers, channel by channel%
Quoting and pricing the work%
Scheduling and routing%
Invoicing and getting paid%
Production work, top activity by hours%
Production work, second activity%
Customer communication between jobs%
Record keeping, taxes, compliance (and whatever else you would spend Tuesdays doing)%

The five questions (start at 4, the agnostic middle)

QuestionYour answerAdjustmentRunning total
1. The deliverable. What is the customer paying for: bytes, a physical outcome, or accountability? Pure bytes +2; mostly outcome or accountability −2; mixed holds
2. The entry floor. Could a beginner with free AI tools produce a version of the average offer that average customers accept? If yes +2
3. The demand gate. Unpoliced platform +2; policed platform +1; referrals, own list, human-first channels −1
4. The blame. Licensed, insured, present human absorbs it −2; real but partial −1; nothing to subtract otherwise
5. The task split. Share of first-year hours on machine-doable tasks: over half +2; a quarter to half +1; under a quarter hold

Arithmetic: start at 4 + adjustments = , clamped to 0–10. Final score: / 10

The bands

BandVerdictRead
0 to 3Build itThe machine barely touches the value; software arrives as margin. Ordinary small-business risks are the only kind
4 to 6Build with adaptationThe machine does real work inside the value chain; a durable human layer remains. Build the deflection on purpose
7 to 8Closed for beginnersThe entry lane is the machine's lane. Experts may thrive; a beginner would compete directly with the tool
9 to 10No laneThe deliverable is the machine. Obsoleted, not eaten

Sanity checks

Dated verdict box

Score / date / 10 on
Fact that drove it, 1
Fact that drove it, 2
Fact that drove it, 3
Blunt friend's independent score / 10

Scores are snapshots, not prophecies. The method tells you where an idea stands today, with the tools that exist today. Re-run it when the ground shifts: a platform changes its rules, a model starts doing your deliverable acceptably, or prices in the niche start sagging.