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Price Any Phone in Five Minutes

4 min read · The Craft

Lesson video in production

The full lesson text below is complete — the video version lands with launch.

You never decide what a phone is worth. The market already decided, and it publishes its decision every day in the sold listings. Appraisal is the five-minute job of reading that decision correctly. Do it on your couch, before you drive anywhere, and you will never stand in a parking lot doing math on your phone while a seller watches you sweat.

Sold comps, not asking prices

Asking prices are wishes. Sold prices are facts. On eBay, search the exact phone, then filter to Sold Listings, then filter condition to Used. What you see now is what real buyers actually paid in the last few weeks. Operators in our corpus drilled one habit: never appraise from active listings, because anyone can list a phone at any fantasy number, and the sell price you plan on does not exist until someone pays it.

Now match condition, apples to apples. A cracked-screen phone cannot be appraised against clean-screen comps, or you will overpay every time. Sort your search until the comps describe the same phone you are buying.

Match the phone, exactly

Three traps ruin more appraisals than any other mistake.

Model variants. An iPhone 13 and an iPhone 13 Pro are different phones with different prices, and one skipped word in a search quietly blends them. Search the model number from Settings, not just the marketing name, and the variant problem disappears.

Storage. A 128-gigabyte phone and a 256-gigabyte phone of the same model sell at different prices. The corpus operators' habit is sound: appraise at the base storage and treat extra storage as a bonus, so your comps never flatter the deal.

Carrier status. Filter comps to match what you are holding. Locked comps for locked phones, unlocked comps for unlocked. This is the single most common comp error on a clean, well-matched search.

Three comps, err low

Find three sold listings that match your phone. They will cluster: say three hundred forty, three hundred fifty-five, three hundred sixty. Average them, then shade down. You are not being pessimistic; you are pricing the risk that your unit is slightly worse than the photos suggest and the risk that the market dipped this week. The corpus operators aimed to err on the low side of the comp range, and the ones still in business still do.

Your maximum offer, computed

Now turn the appraisal into a number you will not exceed. Work backward from net sale to offer:

max offer = (expected sale price × (1 − fee rate) − shipping − supplies) − target profit

On a three-hundred-fifty-dollar expected sale, no eBay store: fees at 13.6 percent are about forty-eight dollars, shipping and supplies about fourteen, and your target profit for the risk and the hour of work is seventy dollars. Maximum offer: three hundred fifty minus forty-eight minus fourteen minus seventy, about two hundred eighteen dollars. If the seller's price is above that, the deal does not exist yet. It might exist after negotiation, which is its own skill and gets its own treatment later in the course.

The operators in our corpus published a rough ladder from the hotter market they worked: pay around thirty to forty dollars for a phone selling near one hundred, one hundred fifty to one hundred eighty for a phone selling near three hundred. Today's compressed market means most deals will sit below those old spreads. The ladder is a sanity check, not a promise: if your computed max offer is within twenty dollars of the expected sale price, the deal is too thin to survive a single surprise, and surprises are a monthly event in this business.

The discipline that makes this work

Never meet a seller without having run the comps first. Never trust your memory of what a model sold for last month; prices on used phones drift down as new models land, and a September release wave resets the whole board. And never let a seller's urgency become your urgency. "I have another buyer" is a price pressure line, not information. If the comps say the phone is worth two hundred eighteen to you, it is worth two hundred eighteen to you whether or not someone else exists.

You now know what to pay. The number in your pocket is what turns a conversation with a seller into a deal, and no seller's story can move it.

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